What’s Next After Bhutto’s Assassination?

Number of posts : 7996 Location : Venus Registration date : 2007-07-25

'Bhutto was being viewed by as a person who could make a difference as a moderate politician'

Any suspicion that Musharraf had a role in Bhutto's murder could pitch Pakistan "to the edge of civil conflict."

Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto's assassination has shocked the world and raised fears over the future of Pakistan.

Bhutto’s killing “is the most serious setback for democracy in Pakistan," Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at Lahore's University of Management Sciences, was quoted by the [b[Associated Press[.b] as saying.

The charismatic, two-time former prime minister died Thursday when an attacker shot her and then blew himself up as she left a political rally in Rawalpindi, a garrison city near the Pakistani capital, Islamabad. The attack was the second assassination attempt against Bhutto since her return to Pakistan in October from an eight-year exile to contest the elections, which are meant to usher the country toward civilian government after years of military dominance.

(See video: Benazir Bhutto assassinated in Pakistan)http://www.aljazeera.com/mm/video/video.php?op=showvideo&vidid=199

With the leader of the largest opposition party killed, Pakistanis are asking whether the parliamentary elections would be held as planned on January 8.

Prime Minister Mohammedmian Soomro said Friday the government had no immediate plan to delay the poll. "Right now the elections stand where they were," he told a news conference. "We will consult all the political parties to take any decision about it."

Soomro’s statement came after key opposition leader and Bhutto‘s main rival, Nawaz Sharif -- whose government was ousted in the 1999 coup that brought President Pervez Musharraf to power -- announced he was boycotting the elections.

Civil Conflict?
Talat Masood, a retired general and a political analyst, expected Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to boycott the elections, particularly because the former prime minister had accused elements in the ruling party of backing militants to kill her; claims that are being denied by the government.
Fingers of blame are already pointing at the government for failing to protect Bhutto.

Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, warned that any suspicion that Musharraf had a role in Bhutto's murder or knew about the plot and failed to prevent it could pitch Pakistan "to the edge of civil conflict."

"Much will depend on whether an extremist movement announces that it committed the attack, but even then a substantial number of Pakistanis will still see the Musharraf government as being at least indirectly involved," he said.

If the PPP pulls out of the elections, the security situation would get worse and the vote would be robbed of legitimacy. This would likely fuel the anti-Musharraf movement, which includes lawyers and civil campaigners who say that his removal from power is a pre-condition for the restoration of democracy.

At the very least, the government will appear to be losing its grip over Pakistan, says Masood. "Conditions in the country have reached a point where it is too dangerous for political parties to operate.”

Masood also anticipated that Musharraf could take drastic measures such as re-imposing the state of emergency, which was lifted recently under immense pressure from the opposition and Western states. But by so doing, the Pakistani president would risk increasing opposition to his rule. Besides, it is not certain that the army would be willing to back such a move now. That’s probably why Musharraf gave no immediate sign of an authoritarian backlash to Bhutto's assassination. He declared three days of national mourning and vowed to fight the terrorists behind her killing.

“Musharraf's major concern now will be to maintain law and order and make sure this does not turn into a major movement against him,” says Rasul Baksh Rais.

Tough days for Musharraf
Only a few months ago, Musharraf held direct talks with Bhutto that paved the way for her return from exile. Pakistan’s western allies had hoped that both leaders could unite against terrorism. Without Bhutto, Musharraf would need to enlist the support of less influential individuals to keep things in order, analysts say.

"In a society becoming increasingly intolerant, she was being viewed by the international community as a person who could make a difference as a moderate politician, who, if she came to power, could turn the tide of extremism in this country," said Zaffar Abbas, an editor for the respected Dawn newspaper.

The spread of militancy also led to suggestions that terrorists might assault secret facilities where Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are stored.

"Pakistan is becoming an ever bigger atomic time bomb", said an article on Italy's Corriere della Sera.

But many analysts dismissed such fears. "They (Pakistan’s nuclear weapons) are not stored where public riots or demonstrations can affect them, and there is no reason the military should become unstable or their security should be compromised," Cordesman said.

However, this does not eliminate fears that Pakistan’s national security might further deteriorate. The huge political void left by Bhutto’s assassination could plunge the country into further chaos.

According to an article on the BBC, Musharraf faces rough days ahead as he‘s widely accused of not doing enough to curb terrorism. This would renew the debate about whether he is fit to rule, and whether the army has the necessary qualifications to continue to guide the political process in Pakistan.

Number of posts : 1567 Location : BaBuL ka AanGaN Registration date : 2007-06-30

Assalam-o-Alaikum ...

Allah Ji Mohtarma Be-Nazir Bhutto Ko Janat-ol-Firdoos Main Jagah Naseeb karrain Ameen Suma-Ameen ...

Now the Question is that whats gonna happen afterwards ......

Nothing will happen next .... what happened before? ......... So many big fishes were eaten by crocodiles noone can do anything ...... Its gone people will cry for some days and it will be over ....... life will move on for all those who will be crying and moaning .....

It was not the first time she was attacked by some suicide bomber ..... On 18th of October 07 near karsaz Karachi there was an attempt to assasinate her although ...... she didnt blame the government or the agencies in that matter ........ i saw her press conference right after the suicide blast in which she said that she does not want to blame the Government regarding this matter ......

There can be another theory that agencies did try to help the islamists regarding this murder ..... but let me elaborate my point of view regarding the suicide attacks ......... President Pervaiz Musharaf was attacked twice ex Prime Minister Shokat Aziz was attacked by some suicide attacker once ex Interior Minister Aftab Ahmad Khan Sher Pao twice and the ex corps Commander of Karachi Ahsan Saleem Hayat once was attacked by the same way now one thing is for sure that the "agencies" were not targetting these gentleman and i am pretty much sure that you Do believe me in this case .....

So i am not saying that Government is involved in it ... Because they already knew its gonna be a big lose for our Nation but one thing i would mention here that Mohtarma was sent by USA to Pakistan because she was agreed to give them the access to the Pakistani Nuclear Agencies or companies as well as provide them with Dr Abd-ulQadir ...

Well ... What's true and whats not ... Allah ji knows better ... We can Only Pary and hope for the best for our Nation ... But without blaming anyone just because of doubtsss ....

Number of posts : 7996 Location : Venus Registration date : 2007-07-25

^ so well said sis..great points ! i'll talk more abt this tomorrow..kinda sleepy right now

Number of posts : 1567 Location : BaBuL ka AanGaN Registration date : 2007-06-30

ahaan .. no worries ... take ur time ... we can wait as always ...

» In Memory Of Benazir Bhutto
» Exhumation of Ms Benazir Bhutto’s body
» Benazir Bhutto hopes to forge an alliance